Biohacker Eric Espinoza, Panel Notes

Eric Espinoza, a scientist, researcher and biohacker at Esper Therapeutics, spoke in a pre-lunch session which was heavily focused on CRISPR, which is a fairly new gene-editing technique that even amateurs can experiment with because it’s relatively low cost. The idea that sticks with me from this conversation was his example of home pregnancy tests and how they used to not be available to consumers; only doctors offices confirmed pregnancies. But maybe by 2050 we can diagnose disease — and design our own treatments/therapies — with advancements in biohacking.

Loose notes…

The focus on biologicals right now are on antibodies, i.e. Which ones will kill cancer cells?
He’s part of the group Biocurious— biohacking — a place to try biological things
Personalized cancer and viral therapy
Crispr kit you take an organism and edit its genome.
The enzyme functionally edits dna. 159 bucks. DIY crispr kit

CRISPR
Crispr has a protein to find RNA, and once it finds the gene it cuts the RNA.
Everyone has cells and trying to get protein inside the cells isn’t easy. Eric tried to get CRISPR inside of cells. The goal was to find a cancer therapy. Worked really well for integrated viruses.

TWIST Biosciences. A DNA synthesis company which has “changed the landscape for DNA synthesis”

CRISPR is 2000 base pairs. TWIST makes genes at five cents per base pair. DNA is going to be super cheap in ten years, maybe sub-penny or less.

You buy all these DNA pairs, and then you buy bacteria, and you force the protein that’s made out of the DNA code into the bacteria. We take these vials and we force the proteins to be made from it, then we kill off the bacteria and then harvest the protein from it.

The synthesis process is pretty good overall, there are sometimes errors, but if there are problems the fixit pair IDs errors.

HOW TO FUND?
NIH grant. Need data to support the grant. Too risky for govt to fund without. Alternative is to support money from VC. They take a lot of equity and control and you no longer have as much. We wanted to show some proof of principle first. Can we get any reasonable data that suggests we are moving in there right direction?

Experiment.com was the route for the reporting
Biocurious offers lab space as a community/sharing pooling resources to drive experiemnt/proof of principle costs down

Should we constrain this/limit access?
There’s lots of talk about the home pregnancy test. The gatekeepers didnt think people could handle the information. I never grew up in a world where a doctor had to test you for pregnancy. I think we saw a lot of similar things with HIV and now we have home HIV tests. All of those fears were unfounded. The fears about CRISPR are unfounded. There is no real way to take CRISPR and ruin everyone else, you can research on a small scale but modifying yourself is impossible. You have a lot of cells in you, and getting CRISPR into that cell is very, very challenging. We have to use electric jolts to force an organism to take a protein. There are some chemical ways to do it but you’d lose 40, 50 percent of your cells

A lot of countries are more cavalier about medical advances. FDA learned a lot about thalidomide in the 50s. But maybe we went too far in the other direction, so other countries are likely to pioneer a lot.

China Genomic Group are the biggest sequencers of all. They have done gene editing on human eggs. They must have gone though hundreds of thousands of eggs to get one edited. What’s the downstream effect? What will happen to this egg? I think they did pigs to knock out the growth hormone of crispr, and pigs were not as sensitive to crispr as humans.

Ethical question: Eugenics.
“Seems so far away, such a foreign, visceral no” that to think that was a regular eugenics exhibits in the 1930s is … if you had access to 100K, a million, the gene drive aspect might only work 5-7 generations. I’m not so confident that’s a real problem.

There are a few papers from Natl Academy of Sciences where they were using gene drive to try and see how long they could keep genes promoted in mosquitoes. After 7 generations, it doesn’t take over the long period.

Gates Foundation is spending a lot of money to eradicate malaria mosquitoes. One question is can we run a gene drive to eradicate a species? How many would you need to put out there? You’re still looking at 10K mosquitoes, if you have a million mosquitoes. You’re going to edit tens of thousands of mosquitoes for every one right now. That’s assuming natural selection doesn’t take over. We see it in antibiotic resistance.

NIH launches genome editing initiative — 190 million over the next few years. THere’s interest in accelerating the research and bringing collaborations and partnerships. Is the public even aware of what the conversation is? Are we too worried about designer babies or eugenics that we are missing unknown unknowns?

Direct to consumer genetic testing:
FDA authorized it in March of this year, to test for BRCA. 23 and Me stopped doing it four years ago but now FDA is allowing it.

DOD comes in once a year to Biocurious to think about making terrible biological weapons with this, but then they come out thinking, ok there are a lot of processes in place to prevent things like that. The DOD is all over this.

Genomic Medicine forecast: Emerging medical discipline involving using genomic info about an individual as part of their clinical care (for diagnostic, prevention, and therapeutic decision making)

We are going to be trying to figure out how to weigh cancer vs therapeutics. When CRISPR made waves the hope was that there was something that would modify the genome with an interchangeable part that’s cheap. Talon cost 100K dollars to make. CRISPR decreases that cost dramatically. There’s a lot of hope and energy and we can use these tools out of genetic problems and diseases. There’s a lot of worry about baby engineering but with those papers … so far it’s not promising for fixing a problem at this point. You’d have to start weighing the costs. Is it better, or not? How is the cost of a designer baby worthwhile?

The revolution will be diagnostic. You do your first test with next generation sequences, then your second pass with CRISPR to either confirm or deny.

We could find that diagnosing conditions are really cheap and easy (like pregnancy) but it doesn’t get into dropping cost of therapies and cures. The papers about the next 10 years put a big damper on the field for awhile.

Biohacking and more, at the IFTF 10-Year Forecast

I’m in the Bay Area for today and tomorrow as the IFTF invited me to check out their annual forecasting event where future minded business and government leaders get together to talk about what’s ahead. The agenda this year revolves around truth and how to trust systems and institutions when data and what we used to conceive of as “real” before our very eyes can be so easily manipulated.

I am here to investigate further and meet people to talk about my first big area of inquiry in the 2050 project, which is the human body. We are going to do this reporting in chapters, and I’ll start from a human and then work outward, to human-human connections (love), and the human-human-human (community, cities).

One of the big topics that’s coming up is biohacking; with CRISPR and the like. Silicon Valley is home to something called Biocurious, a community of hackers who pool their resources to share lab space and information.

Interview Notes: Jane McGonigal, IFTF

Jane is a world-renowned designer of alternate reality games—or, games that are designed to improve real lives and solve real problems. Jane is also a future forecaster. She is the Director of Games Research & Development at the Institute for the FutureHer research focuses on how games are transforming the way we lead our real lives, and how they can be used to increase our resilience and well-being. 

Me: [Intros the project]. We’re gonna be starting with the human and the human body — the most basic needs like food and water to survive,  then maybe move outward to love. And then community, and that’s where we can work in the urban question: how we’ll live going forward as communities. That’s also maybe where transportation will come in. Where surveillance might come in. Where connection with your neighbors comes in. So I wanted to talk with you! What do you imagine 2050 will be like? What kinds of things are you thinking about?

Jane: The Institute for the Future is having our 10 year forecast next week and it’s in the Bay Area. It’s in Mountainview. I’d love to extend an invitation to you. That will answer a lot of your questions. I’m going to speak on behalf of the institute rather than myself personally. We have a number of different research programs. A big one is future of food. How tech is trying to increase the sustainability of the food supply chain — impact of climate change, lab-created meat, GMOs for different DNA types, biome modified foods to cure diseases and mental health issues, the whole body of work around that. That I’m happy to send you our forecasts. We have a new report we just launched at the climate innovation summit that happened last week — what levers we have to stop climate change? Not forecasting what the world will be like but what are the ways we might stop climate change?

Me: I didn’t bucket out climate change or migration as a specific topic because it’s a layer that will affect everything.

Jane: Displacement is a big research topic that we’re tackling. I think you’re right to lok at it iat a human level. How will we learn? How will we stay connected to our family and our cultures? We have a health program that looks at life extension to personalized medicine and augmentation — exoskeletons and neuro-rewrite technologies. And a big part of our research is around surveillance state, privacy and data issues. And a ton of research on the future of work. Which is the big issue that creates a lot of anxiety.

Me: Automation replacing humans?

Jane: That and one of the things I think about is — the number one job for migrant workers is in slaughterhouses in the United States. It’s traumatizing, it’s high turnover and super stressful and the rise of lab-curated meat is going to change the nature of meat labor in the future. Instead of a low skill job we would have a higher skill job that requires you to be a lab technician to work with sophisticated lab equipment. And it’s not automation! It’s a new skill set. It’s a different type of worker. On one hand it’s good because it’s less traumatizing. It costs too much from a planetary perspective to eat meat. When I think about the future, we try to come up with these sort of intersections where a lot of the dilemmas and innovations hit up against each other. And the anxieties we have hit up against innovations and we try to then ask what will be possible in the future, what should we worry about in the future. The surveillance in China is the best

Me: Oh yeah, Xinjiang province is a test bed for a highly wired police state.

Jane: Yeah. Most of the reporting is anxiety laden but many people in China like the programs of surveillance. They are testing a hundred different versions and they’re learning a lot about what surveillance states where people feel not paranoid or disempowered by but transparent enough. One criteria that’s not apocalyptic is if the number of things you can do to benefit you and increase your score by a magnitute of 100 to 1, so for every one negative thing you can get dinged for there is 100 things you can do to be judged favorably, that might feel like an environment where you have many avenues to improve your bad reputation. Versus a system you can be dinged for 100 different things. That’s toxic, punishing and anxiety-producing. The way I look at it is to really look at multiple futures. The technology trends is definitely headed this way — so we can steer it, not stop it. We are looking at different directions it can go. So we can articulate one possible future we’re not terrified by. Or one that sounds better than the present.

Even if it’s something like climate change, our new report is trying to figure out how this brings out the best in humanity and the types of solutions to create a brighter future instead of punishing people with dystopian possibilities.

I will send you some of our research and invite you to our conference. In terms of specific topics and ideas. We have a ton of researchers who would be happy to talk to you.

Project Update: We’ve Arrived at a Framework!

My editor, Uri, is back from his time away from the desk and we had a great call in which I updated him on my discoveries and conversations over the past two weeks.

I’ve landed on a framework not by industry (because those industries might not exist in 2050), and not by ideology (because that’s probably too abstract) and not tools (AI, for instance, will be a layer that affects many ways of life and governance, etc). So what breaks us out of traditional reporting constraints but isn’t too constraining is to organize by HUMAN NEED: to live, to love, to find community, etc.

This allows me to start with an exploration of the future human itself, physiologically, the human body and its need for water/food etc and then work outward to love and connection (dating, reproduction, sex and gender, etc) and then further outward to community and housing, and further outward to humans going from place-to-place and getting goods and services (transportation).

It also globalizes the work, it isn’t America centric. All humans share the same basic needs. This gives us a much wider audience possibility for video on streaming services or on YouTube and the like. Very exciting on that front.

We’re going to get going with ideas about how humans will actually function and be made in 2050 — likely with expanded physical and mental capacity as well as lifespan. Very exciting!

The premise is the oft-cited William Gibson quote: The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed. There are places where the future human is already evident or being experimented. That’s what we will begin our exploration doing/seeing. But we’ll also LOOK BACK to how predictions of thirty years ago about 2020 looked, and how they might have gotten things wrong and if so, why. It’s a nod to how even though we’re getting insight and helping people think about 2050, we also know we’ll be off the mark for reasons we aren’t anticipating.

“Berggruen Institute Casts L.A. as the Lab to Reconceive Humanity”

OBVIOUSLY I am getting hooked up with these folks…

“Entertainment, art, science, education — all are embodied by the Berggruen Institute, a DTLA-based, big-picture think tank working to get our society out ahead of the major issues that will affect humanity in the coming centuries.”

 

Brainstorm Notes: Colin Maclay of USC Innovation Lab

Me: When you think out to 2050 — how do you think about it? How do you organize your thoughts and inquiry and experimentation?

Colin: I’m going to free associate which may or may not have connections to this.

  1. My pal and office mate Henry Jenkins is working on a civic imagination project. Workshops with people to imagine the future generally. They choose 2040 or 2050, and map out what they would like to see, what they would expect. And use narrative and popular culture mashups to create a tale of how we got from here to there. Part of the thinking being that we live in the tyranny of the possible and we see barriers and can only imagine modest change rather than imagine something more ambitious and positive that we would have to WORK to achieve. Let’s have this grand vision. What they find that’s interesting is that people regardless of politics, people have similar visions but don’t know how we’re going to get there when they think about near-term stuff.

Henry is a pop culture, science fiction junkie and just a neat person. He’s the digital culture historian at the Library of Congress right now. We’re doing an event with him in late January on podcasting and he became a huge podcast fan. Something neat there and opportunity around him and his network. Around civic and community and what that looks like, what our lives are like. One lens.

My immediate reaction to your “how to explore it” question is, we’re too siloed into disciplines. And the action is always at the intersection of the buckets and how they connect and interplay. That’s an obvious pushback. How do you make the buckets DIFFERENT from the way we normally think about, or set them up so we show an interdynamic system. Because clearly the environmental bucket would affect everything if you label that, it would be limiting.

Two things in this zone: Alex McDowell — production designer who teaches at USC who made a bunch of movies. Most famously Minority Report. Fight Club, and a bunch of other things. When he did Minority Report he faced the challenge you were in making it. They said, when you make a movie they give you a script with a plot and everything. The only thing he was given was, “Imagine if we could see five minutes into the future.” That was the whole thing. There was no story. So he brought together and interviewed all these people who were working on different aspects of the future. They did this practice called world building where he created an integrated view of what the future could look like. So it wasn’t like in one domain there were assumptions in one direction, and there were assumptions in another direction. So that you could see how all the aspects moved together to create a coherent world. So that if you saw this massive development in batteries, it would have a ripple effect in education and transportation and in the end it feels much more real. Many people have argued that Minority Report is a compelling and coherent as an experiential view of the future.

Ann Pendleton Julian. She leads world-building studios. And she’s in LA now and we would love for her to stay here.

NOTE TO SELF: World-building studios exist! Go see one. (For example they build a world after a scenario, for example the seas rise two feet by 2050 and do a whole studio around it, and design things for that future and explore problem solving to respond to that future.)

“We think this whole world building stuff is an interesting mashup of futurism and storytelling and creates an environment to do problem solving.” There could be a project where we really tap into heavy hitters. Just to put in perspective, JSB (writing partner/supporter of Ann) is just now stepping off board of Amazon.

There are a bunch of people who want to use world building to think about what’s happening but also to prepare challenges and opportunities.

Me: But I need limits! Because of what I’m making.

Even without the limits of what you’re making it’s still a really hard question to figure out how you want to organize. I’m unburdened by knowledge!

I believe in dog fooding. We need to be doing reflection and practice. We should thinkign about stuff and learning and trying shit out. How do you integrate the learning in a natural way so that it’s more real? Maybe the thing is, we need to create some buckets ultimately but we don’t knwo what the buckets are. So is there a way we can have conversations or activities to chunk it out into smaller pieces. You dont have to understand the grand organizing scheme but explore it in a way that listenrs can follow along and engage and get you to see how to then organize it. A phase that’s exploratory and unburdened but not try to be too smart by half when you havent even delved into it. Maybe X period of time, now we’re gonna come at it from another angle. Now we’ve learned and we’ll build it out. So that way it’s iterative. Between different data points. As opposed to assuming that before we start we know what stories.

What if I did it around humans? I start with a body, and then bodies in love, and then humans in community, and so on?

My immediate reaction is, that sounds good.  If you start with say the future of work, there are assumptions baked into that. Like that we need to work. or the need to be educated, and those values are baked in. Maybe that might be functionally real. But I like the idea of what we really NEED? What we need to survive. It puts you in a position to build a world based on what we need and want rather than what we have. That way you’re not as burdened by the tyranny of the possible — how do we transition from late capitalism and democracy — and that might be real but this is more interesting, saying what do we want to achieve around live and love and shelter? If those are necessary or possible? How do we work back from that? What does that look like? The neat thing about live, love, connect, removes it from a US context and a global set of questions. The people who don’t live in our context can open up universes of possibilities of whats’ happening in other places or the values in other places. Other cities and communities are thinking about the future. Increases potential ideas and potential audience. That way we are lowering the barrier.

Some constraints are your friends. The constraints I like suggest a constraint but truly you could do a lot under it and yet are meaningful to the audience. Here’s are time immemorial questions. And these are the most fundamental questions of humanity. And of society. So let’s ask em. We have a blank slate.

Who should I talk to next?

The Berggreun Institute. This guy Nicholas Berggreun, used to be called the homeless billionaire is a think tank foundation something and as with any organization there are some uneveness there but there are some people there I really like, including the VP who runs most things. His name is Dawn Nakagawa. She’s leading the exploration of 21st century governance and what it looks like in the emerging world we’re entering into. She’s super sharp and creative and they’re trying to be anti-academic in a good way. Thinking about inquiry and action. I like her and trust her.

They have a program called future of the human, with a guy named Tobias Rees, who I like a lot. Who’s like a philosopher. His idea is that metaphors about being human  are breaking down — what does it mean to be a human in the future?

Michael Chabon, on thinking much longer term

“This is the paradox that lies at the heart of our loss of belief or interest in the Future, which has in turn produced a collective cultural failure to imagine that future, any Future, beyond the rim of a couple of centuries. The Future was represented so often and for so long, in the terms and characteristic styles of so many historical periods from, say, Jules Verne forward, that at some point the idea of the Future—along with the cultural appetite for it—came itself to feel like something historical, outmoded, no longer viable or attainable.” —Michael Chabon, writing for LongNow Foundation

RE: How To Organize Areas of Inquiry

Since I want this to be centered around people as much as possible, what if we did it as each “chapter” around a human need?

To exist and survive
(cyborg-humans, future of war/migration)
To work
(will people even work? what if capitalism is dead by then?)
To eat
(genome editing leads to high-yield plants, etc)
To die
(aging, plus will we still die? will we live too long? ethics?)
To find love
(will our social institutions like marriage still exist?)
To get from place to place
(transportation)
To learn
(how knowledge is passed)

…and so on and so forth.